Investec has revised its expectations for South Africa’s GDP, projecting a decline of 0.6 percentage points due to the impact of increasing fuel costs and international turmoil on the economy.
At the beginning of the year, the South African government had anticipated a GDP growth rate of 1.6% for 2026, which represented an improvement from the previous year.
In 2025, the growth rate was recorded at 1.1%, falling short compared to other emerging markets like Brazil and China.
Although earlier predictions suggested robust GDP growth for South Africa, Investec’s treasury economist Tertia Jacobs indicated that this figure is likely to be adjusted downward.
“We forecast South Africa’s GDP growth at 1.0% in 2026, below Treasury’s previous estimate of 1.6%,” Jacobs stated.
This outlook emerges ahead of Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s presentation of the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) scheduled for Wednesday, 21 October.
Jacobs pointed out that the reduction in the growth forecast is attributed to escalating fuel prices, a tightening of monetary policy over the past year, and insufficient investment levels.
“The economic outlook has weakened since the February Budget Review, as higher energy prices, tighter monetary policy and subdued investment continue to constrain growth,” she elaborated.
In the past year, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has increased interest rates twice in response to rising inflation, which is largely influenced by fuel costs.
The ongoing conflict in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital trade route, have led to a substantial increase in global oil prices.
Since the onset of the conflict, oil prices have consistently stayed above $100 per barrel, resulting in heightened fuel expenses for South African consumers.
According to Investec, this rise in fuel prices poses a “significant concern” for South Africa, exerting pressure on both businesses and households.
“High international oil and refined-product prices are increasing pressure on households and businesses and contributing to inflation risks,” Jacobs noted.
She added that the forthcoming MTBPS will likely address these economic pressures; however, relief from fuel levies may not be feasible given the financial implications of such measures.
“The MTBPS may clarify the cost of current fuel-levy reductions and outline the government’s approach to additional relief,” Jacobs explained.
Previously, the National Treasury had lowered the General Fuel Levy (GFL) to shield consumers from abrupt fuel price hikes, an action that resulted in an estimated R17 billion in lost revenue for the government.
Still good news
Despite the expectation of a downward revision in economic growth, Investec believes that the upcoming MTBPS could still present positive news regarding South Africa’s fiscal management.
Jacobs anticipates that the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio may have improved over the past year, exceeding February’s forecasts.
“We expect the main budget deficit to narrow to 3.2% of GDP in 2026/27, compared to the 3.7% predicted in February,” she added.
“This implies that fiscal consolidation is progressing, although debt reduction will likely continue to be gradual.”
She indicated that the forthcoming MTBPS would likely emphasize fiscal credibility while aiming for sustainable growth in the future.
Jacobs expressed it will prioritize “continued fiscal consolidation, resilient revenue collections, and stricter spending discipline.”
“Given weaker growth and higher inflation, the aim will be to maintain fiscal credibility while preparing for stronger, more sustainable medium-term growth,” she noted.
Investment in infrastructure, particularly in rail and logistics, will be vital for enhancing future growth, according to Jacobs.
“Infrastructure investment and structural reforms, especially in rail and logistics, are essential for enhancing the economy’s growth potential, though significant benefits will take time to materialize,” she stated.
Many economists anticipate positive developments in the upcoming MTBPS regarding South Africa’s financial position, with some cautiously hopeful that it may lead to credit rating upgrades from leading agencies such as Moody’s and S&P.
Currently, all three major credit rating agencies have assigned South Africa a “junk status,” with Moody’s last affirming the rating in 2020.
Since that time, there has been a positive shift in the outlook for South Africa’s credit rating, with some economists optimistic about the country achieving investment grade by 2028.
