By Sizwe Kupelo
Jacob Zuma’s political journey exemplifies how power dynamics, legitimacy, timing, and narrative can be manipulated by an individual often underestimated by political elites and analysts.
Zuma’s legal struggles—from the 2006 rape case to various corruption allegations—highlight a continued reliance on procedural rights and legal avenues. He successfully fought against the rape allegation and extended the legal proceedings surrounding the arms deal for almost two decades. Some rulings related to his cases have entered legal discourse as “Zuma law,” especially concerning contempt of court and direct imprisonment without a typical trial. Legal scholars have noted that his strategy took advantage of the system’s gaps and delays, establishing precedents influencing the understanding of contempt and constitutional rights.
The formation of the MK Party while maintaining a disputed link to the ANC represents a strategic approach: generating tension between two positions and utilizing that tension to reshape the political landscape. By seemingly inhabiting both spaces, he compelled the ANC and the judiciary to respond according to his terms. Supporters point to the Electoral Commission’s efforts to block his candidacy before the 2024 elections, alongside the Constitutional Court’s ruling against that obstruction, as a demonstration of his ability to outmaneuver various institutional forces.
Zuma’s tactics consistently involve anticipating how his opponents will frame issues and responding preemptively. He typically allows adversaries to commit to a public stance, then introduces a counter-strategy that alters the narrative. This methodology aligns with the political tactic of offering decision-makers different options—safe, bold, and passive—while manipulating circumstances so that the bold choice appears to be the only feasible route.
Recent engagements in Morocco, Burkina Faso, and Portugal, as well as comments regarding subjects like Moroccan claims over Western Sahara, have broadened his sphere of influence beyond South Africa. Critics have interpreted these actions as undermining the nation’s official foreign policy, whereas supporters view them as a form of independent diplomatic initiative. The real impact lies not so much in the travels themselves but in the uncertainty they create regarding the future application of his influence.
Experts are divided over Zuma’s ultimate objective. Some believe he aims to reclaim formal political power, while others maintain he intends to act as an informal power broker, sometimes characterized as “unelected influence.” His expressed focus appears to have been on weakening the current leadership of the ANC and reshaping the party structure. The success of this endeavor will hinge on the outcomes of elections, party dynamics, and public attitudes during the forthcoming political period.
Zuma’s career illustrates that the core elements of politics—power, interests, institutions, narrative, and timing—can be effectively navigated even without formal institutional support or scholarly approval. Regardless of whether his actions are viewed as strategic maneuvers or disruptive forces, they have transformed legal and political standards in South Africa. The ongoing significance of this approach indicates that analysts and adversaries who consider him politically irrelevant may be misjudging the landscape.
Sizwe Kupelo is a former journalist and a philanthropist.
