Hot Coals and Cold Winds: A Braai Bash Curtailment

The Braai Index for October 2026 indicates a continuing increase in the costs associated with hosting a braai in South Africa, marking the fifth consecutive month of year-on-year inflation that affects household budgets.

However, there is a slight improvement as the October index indicates a decrease from the 5.2% peak recorded in September, which was the highest in the past year.

In October, the Braai Index stands at 4.1% year-on-year, with a month-on-month inflation rate of 0.1%.

This index offers insights into retail pricing trends across major urban areas for October, anticipating the official inflation figures from Stats SA, which will be released in November.

Stats SA reported food inflation at 1.0% year-on-year in September, while the Braai Index registered a more significant 5.2% for the same period.

Price increases in the braai basket are largely driven by specific items, including tomatoes, potatoes, and onions, which have experienced notable price hikes over the last year and the past month.

Conversely, meat prices, including beef, wors, and chicken, have declined, albeit from a previously high level due to recent industry pressures.

On a broader scale, headline inflation is rising due to escalated energy prices in 2026, influenced by increasing fuel costs amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict.

This rise in prices is also contributing to secondary effects that impact different sectors.

The rising food prices are not only a result of higher energy prices affecting farming but also related to transportation costs, including freight and logistics.

Looking ahead, October’s inflation is estimated to increase to 5% due to substantial fuel price hikes. Projections for November suggest a decrease in inflation, aided by a R10 billion package intended to mitigate fuel costs.

However, as 2027 approaches, the energy crisis shows no signs of resolution, and the repercussions of the El Niño weather phenomenon are expected to add further pressure.

BusinessTech compiles the Braai Index monthly, utilizing pricing data from the PMBEJD. The methodology is derived from Bloomberg.

The PMBEJD’s data reflects actual prices across South Africa’s principal provinces and comprises items that are generally part of the shopping baskets of most households in the country.

This basket includes meat options (beef, wors, chicken portions), several vegetables (spinach, carrots, tomatoes, potatoes, onions, green peppers), and various other goods (samp, maize, curry powder, salt).

It should be noted that the index relies on data from PMBEJD, which does not account for other protein sources such as pork and lamb, and as a result, these alternatives are excluded from the analysis.